Claim: COVID-19 is just another Flu (Disproved)

Often this claim will be along the lines of Australia has only 611 deaths to COVID (as of 31/08/2020), we had 902 influenza linked deaths in Australia in 2019 and over 1,100 in 2017 so why are we worried about COVID? I do not dispute the facts about the flu. The fact often neglected to be mentioned in conjunction with this claim is that this was out of 312,978 lab-confirmed cases vs only 25,746 and counting COVID cases.

Influenza(2019)[1] COVID (as of 31/8/2020)[2]
Cases 312,978 25,746
Deaths 911 652
Mortality Rate 0.291% 2.532%
Relative Lethality 12.3% 1149%
  • COVID has a mortality rate of 2.5% that's 11.49X more deadly than 2019's Influenza strains.
  • R0 describes transmission potential of a virus essentially how many people are likely to be infected per case. COVID has an estimated median R0 of 5.7[3] influenza only has an R0 of between 0.9 and 2.1[4] this means that the more contagious strains of Influenza spreads 36.84% slower per interval this effect compounds with each infection cycle so if a cycle is 9 days Influenza would be spread 13.6% the amount of cases after 18 days in comparison to COVID and only 5% after 27 days - that's 20x as many cases after 3 intervals!.
  • If we hit as many cases as the 2019 flu at COVID mortality rates we could expect in the vicinity of 7,924 deaths
  • The above dot point ignores how quickly the ramp up to that figure would be (as COVID is much more contagious) this would add strain to healthcare facilities due to both sheer numbers and healthcare workers falling victim to the disease.
  • There is mounting evidence[5] that a recovery from COVID may still leave people with lasting health issues Developing - do not treat as fact yet

DHHS Weekly Epidemiology reports may also provide a valuable and up to date insight if you'd like to do further reading into the current state of COVID-19 and the risk it presents

References

[1] Immunisation Coalition (Ian Barr, Deputy Director WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza), Review of the 2019 influenza season in Australia and what to expect in 2020 (Viewed on 31/08/2020)
[2] Australian Government Department of Health, Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers (Viewed on 31/08/2020)
[3] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (Viewed on 31/08/2020)
[4]School of Publich Health - University of Michigan R0: How Scientists Quantify the Intensity of an Outbreak Like Coronavirus and Its Pandemic Potential (Viewed on 31/08/2020)
[5] Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, What are the long-term health risks following COVID-19? (Viewed on 31/08/2020)